Agricultural product exports: Bright spots in 2023 and great expectations in 2024

Agricultural product exports have become a remarkable highlight when the turnover value in 2023 reaches over 53 billion USD. In 2024, the industry also carries many expectations.

Many products recorded new records

According to Economics & Urban, information from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, in 2023, GDP growth of the entire agricultural sector is estimated to reach 3.83%, the highest in recent years. In addition, product export turnover is estimated to reach over 53 billion USD. The industry-wide trade surplus in 2023 will reach more than 11 billion USD, the highest level in recent years and accounting for over 42.5% of the country’s trade surplus. Many products recorded new records, typically rice and vegetables.

Regarding rice products, according to statistics from the General Department of Customs, by the end of the first half of December 2023, Vietnam had exported more than 7.9 million tons of rice, worth more than 4.5 billion USD, an increase 11% in volume and 29% in value compared to the same period in 2022. This result is higher than the previous forecast of about 7.1 million tons of rice exported for the whole year and nearly equal to the Ministry’s estimated output. Industry and Trade previously exported about 8 million tons for the whole year, with a turnover of about 4.5 billion USD.

With this momentum, experts predict that by 2023, rice exports could reach 8.2 million tons with a turnover of nearly 4.8 billion USD. This number has reached its highest level since 1989 (the year Vietnam started exporting rice) until now.

Notably, Vietnamese rice is increasingly conquering demanding markets. Recently, according to the announcement of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, ST25 – the rice variety that once won the title of best rice in the world organized by The Rice Trade organization – has officially enjoyed preferential tariffs when exported to the European Union market. (EU). Along with ST25, ST24 varieties also enjoy tax incentives when exported to the EU.

Before ST24 and ST25 received incentives, 9 Vietnamese rice varieties also enjoyed tax incentives when exported to the EU, including: Jasmine 85, ST5, ST20, Nang Hoa 9, VD20, RVT, OM 4900, OM 5451 and Cho Dao Resources. This is an opportunity to increase rice export turnover into this potential market.

Regarding fruits and vegetables, the Vietnam Fruit and Vegetable Association forecasts that fruit and vegetable exports in 2023 are expected to reach 5.6 billion USD, a record level for this industry ever. With a record of nearly 5.6 billion USD, fruit and vegetable export turnover in 2023 will make a strong breakthrough, exceeding 40% of the plan at the beginning of the year and increasing nearly 66% over the same period in 2022. At the same time, this item also has the leading export turnover in the agricultural product group when surpassing key industries such as rice, cashew nuts, coffee, cassava…

Agricultural product exports have become a notable bright spot when the turnover value in 2023 reaches over 53 billion USD.

Notably, durian has become the “champion” in the group of exported fruits and vegetables when achieving very high growth figures. This is both a great effort of the business and a result of the efforts of ministries and branches to open the Chinese market for Vietnamese durian products.

Besides many exported agricultural products recording new records such as rice, vegetables, coffee… there are other products that have declined quite sharply such as seafood, wooden furniture, forest products… Analyzing this issue, Deputy Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development Tran Thanh Nam assessed that 2023 will have many changes for Vietnam’s agricultural exports, with many difficulties but also advantages. Compensation in export turnover helps the industry maintain positive results. However, there are still many problems in quality and raw material areas that need to be overcome to maintain sustainability.

The agricultural sector continues to work with localities and businesses to review and set specific targets and goals on applying high technology to production. This is a basic solution to remove difficulties and problems regarding the quality and standards of Vietnamese agricultural products when exporting to major markets.

Promising forecast for 2024

Many experts and managers predict that 2024 will still have many advantages for the rice, vegetable, fruit, coffee and other commodity industries with new opportunities that Vietnamese agricultural products need to proactively take advantage of. .

Deputy Director of the Import-Export Department (Ministry of Industry and Trade) Tran Thanh Hai recommended: to ensure sustainable development and establish a stable import market, businesses need to proactively build chain links, regularly Update standards from import markets to have countermeasures in building raw material sources as well as processing and packaging for export. Deputy Minister Tran Thanh Nam said that enterprises exporting these industries need to focus on building production chains, closely following requirements from import markets, ensuring sustainable growth.

For seafood and wooden products, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development closely follows the implementation of the national sector planning for the period 2021 – 2030, with a vision to 2050 (on forestry, protection of aquatic resources and fishing ports). In particular, focus on building organizational forms and production links, linking along the value chain, applying high technology to reduce intermediate costs, increase added value, and remove the “yellow card”. IUU as well as solving hot spots of deforestation, illegal transportation and storage of forest products…

Clearly identifying the actual situation, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development continues to coordinate with the Ministry of Industry and Trade to negotiate to remove technical barriers, trade barriers and open export markets; Support localities to connect and promote the processing and consumption of agricultural products during the harvest season. In particular, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development will propose that the Government continue to support agricultural production and export enterprises to access preferential capital.

According to Dau Tu newspaper, the Ministry of Industry and Trade’s forecast shows that in 2024, production, business and export will still face many big challenges. However, the recovery momentum in 2024 with agricultural products, rice, and fruit will still be a bright spot in 2024 due to many orders arriving, world import demand still increasing, and Vietnam has scored points as a importer. Providing increasingly quality agricultural export products, meeting requirements from demanding markets.

With rice, the export target in 2024 is expected to bring in 5.3 billion USD, an increase of nearly 13% compared to 2023.

The Vietnam Food Association (VFA) said that rice exports in the first half of next year will continue to be favorable due to high world demand. In 2023, in the context of unstable food security, India and Russia tighten exports, Vietnam emerges as an exporting country with large output, many types of high quality, stable rice for many segments. markets, from Asia to Europe.

According to Tan Long Group, the business aims to export 700,000 tons of rice in 2024, about 10 – 20% of that output will be high quality rice exported to European markets.

The US Department of Agriculture forecasts that global rice production in the 2023-2024 crop year will reach nearly 518 million tons. While total world consumption is 525 million tons, an increase of 2.8 million tons compared to the previous year. India has the ability to maintain rice export restrictions, which is a favorable opportunity for Vietnam’s rice exports.

For the coffee industry, many leading experts predict that Vietnam’s export coffee prices will continue to remain high next year, and may even reach a new peak in 2024 due to concerns about coffee supply. Global. It is forecasted that coffee exports could earn 4.3-4.5 billion USD in 2024.

The fruit and vegetable industry will also be busier next year thanks to the boost from a series of signed protocols to speed up exports to China. “Leverage” from this billion-people market has brought in nearly 6 billion USD in revenue by 2023 (exports to China alone will increase by about 2 billion USD thanks to durian products).

With watermelon just being allowed to be officially exported to China, up to now there are 14 types of Vietnamese agricultural products being officially exported to this market. The agricultural industry expects that after the visit to Vietnam by Chinese General Secretary and President Xi Jinping, agricultural trade will be promoted more strongly, creating billions of dollars in additional export revenue in 2024.

The export market is wide open thanks to 16 currently implementing FTAs, expected to increase to 17 FTAs next year. Good political relations have been consolidated and upgraded with major partners such as China, the United States, and the EU, creating a premise for wider exports. But agricultural products are inherently sensitive and have many risks, especially technical barriers set up by many large markets.

Ms. Ngo Tuong Vy, General Director of Chanh Thu Fruit Import-Export Group Joint Stock Company, said that the market has opened, but if businesses do not continuously improve production, processing, and improve the quality of exported goods, exports, improving selling prices… it will be difficult to take advantage of opportunities.